Trader consensus around 49.5% implied probability for 125 or more US tornadoes in September 2026, versus near-identical odds for the 25–124 ranges, stems from uncertainty over whether activity will exceed the climatological average of roughly 66. Early-month SPC outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains and Midwest, with limited tornado parameters amid modest instability and shear. September totals often hinge on landfalling tropical systems that inject low-level vorticity, moisture, and enhanced wind shear; absent such events, activity tends to remain sparse as the mid-latitude jet weakens. Recent model runs show variable steering patterns and limited tropical threats so far, leaving resolution sensitive to any late-month cyclone development or persistent frontal setups that could shift counts toward the higher bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTornados nos EUA em setembro de 2026
Tornados nos EUA em setembro de 2026
125 ou mais 49%
25 - 49 49%
50 - 74 49%
75 - 124 49%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
Menos de 25
4%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
49%
75 - 124
49%
125 ou mais
49%
125 ou mais 49%
25 - 49 49%
50 - 74 49%
75 - 124 49%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
Menos de 25
$10 Vol.
4%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
49%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
49%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
49%
125 ou mais
$25 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus around 49.5% implied probability for 125 or more US tornadoes in September 2026, versus near-identical odds for the 25–124 ranges, stems from uncertainty over whether activity will exceed the climatological average of roughly 66. Early-month SPC outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains and Midwest, with limited tornado parameters amid modest instability and shear. September totals often hinge on landfalling tropical systems that inject low-level vorticity, moisture, and enhanced wind shear; absent such events, activity tends to remain sparse as the mid-latitude jet weakens. Recent model runs show variable steering patterns and limited tropical threats so far, leaving resolution sensitive to any late-month cyclone development or persistent frontal setups that could shift counts toward the higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$35Data de Término
15 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus around 49.5% implied probability for 125 or more US tornadoes in September 2026, versus near-identical odds for the 25–124 ranges, stems from uncertainty over whether activity will exceed the climatological average of roughly 66. Early-month SPC outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains and Midwest, with limited tornado parameters amid modest instability and shear. September totals often hinge on landfalling tropical systems that inject low-level vorticity, moisture, and enhanced wind shear; absent such events, activity tends to remain sparse as the mid-latitude jet weakens. Recent model runs show variable steering patterns and limited tropical threats so far, leaving resolution sensitive to any late-month cyclone development or persistent frontal setups that could shift counts toward the higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$35Data de Término
15 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus around 49.5% implied probability for 125 or more US tornadoes in September 2026, versus near-identical odds for the 25–124 ranges, stems from uncertainty over whether activity will exceed the climatological average of roughly 66. Early-month SPC outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains and Midwest, with limited tornado parameters amid modest instability and shear. September totals often hinge on landfalling tropical systems that inject low-level vorticity, moisture, and enhanced wind shear; absent such events, activity tends to remain sparse as the mid-latitude jet weakens. Recent model runs show variable steering patterns and limited tropical threats so far, leaving resolution sensitive to any late-month cyclone development or persistent frontal setups that could shift counts toward the higher bins.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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