Greg Casar holds a commanding lead in the TX-37 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The Austin-area seat features a Cook PVI around D+26 and delivered large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris in 2024. Casar, the incumbent moved into the district after mid-decade redistricting prompted Lloyd Doggett’s retirement, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced through a low-turnout May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance historically exceeds 70 percent. Trader consensus at 98 percent for Casar aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unexpected turnout shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa TX-37
Vencedor da eleição da casa TX-37
$42,878 Vol.
$42,878 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Greg Casar (D)
98%
Lauren Peña (R)
1%
$42,878 Vol.
$42,878 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Greg Casar (D)
$26,227 Vol.
98%
Lauren Peña (R)
$16,651 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Casar holds a commanding lead in the TX-37 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The Austin-area seat features a Cook PVI around D+26 and delivered large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris in 2024. Casar, the incumbent moved into the district after mid-decade redistricting prompted Lloyd Doggett’s retirement, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced through a low-turnout May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance historically exceeds 70 percent. Trader consensus at 98 percent for Casar aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unexpected turnout shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$42,878Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Casar holds a commanding lead in the TX-37 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The Austin-area seat features a Cook PVI around D+26 and delivered large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris in 2024. Casar, the incumbent moved into the district after mid-decade redistricting prompted Lloyd Doggett’s retirement, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced through a low-turnout May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance historically exceeds 70 percent. Trader consensus at 98 percent for Casar aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unexpected turnout shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,878Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Casar holds a commanding lead in the TX-37 House race due to the district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The Austin-area seat features a Cook PVI around D+26 and delivered large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Kamala Harris in 2024. Casar, the incumbent moved into the district after mid-decade redistricting prompted Lloyd Doggett’s retirement, secured the Democratic nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge. Republican nominee Lauren Peña advanced through a low-turnout May runoff but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic performance historically exceeds 70 percent. Trader consensus at 98 percent for Casar aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or unexpected turnout shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome before the November general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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