Recent polling in New York's 21st congressional district shows Republican nominee Anthony Constantino and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien separated by single-digit margins in most surveys conducted since primaries concluded in June. The open seat left by Elise Stefanik's retirement in this R+10 district has drawn competitive fundraising and local focus on economic issues, with Gendebien emphasizing his background as a dairy farmer and Constantino positioning as a Trump-endorsed businessman. Multiple late-summer surveys place Constantino ahead by 4 to 13 points, yet undecided voters and an independent candidate keep the outcome sensitive to turnout among rural and suburban voters. Traders appear to view the race as favoring a modest Republican victory while assigning meaningful probability to narrower margins or an upset, reflecting the district's partisan baseline alongside candidate quality and midterm dynamics. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution point.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRepublicano 6-9% 21%
Republicano 3-6% 14%
Democrata 0-3% 12%
Republicano 9-12% 10.8%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Republicano 21%+
14%
Republicano 18-21%
5%
Republicano 15-18%
5%
Republicano 12-15%
9%
Republicano 9-12%
11%
Republicano 6-9%
21%
Republicano 3-6%
14%
Republicano 0-3%
11%
Democrata 0-3%
12%
Democrata 3%+
8%
Republicano 6-9% 21%
Republicano 3-6% 14%
Democrata 0-3% 12%
Republicano 9-12% 10.8%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Republicano 21%+
$199 Vol.
14%
Republicano 18-21%
$90 Vol.
5%
Republicano 15-18%
$119 Vol.
5%
Republicano 12-15%
$144 Vol.
9%
Republicano 9-12%
$316 Vol.
11%
Republicano 6-9%
$271 Vol.
21%
Republicano 3-6%
$132 Vol.
14%
Republicano 0-3%
$120 Vol.
11%
Democrata 0-3%
$138 Vol.
12%
Democrata 3%+
$253 Vol.
8%
The 2026 NY-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in New York's 21st congressional district shows Republican nominee Anthony Constantino and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien separated by single-digit margins in most surveys conducted since primaries concluded in June. The open seat left by Elise Stefanik's retirement in this R+10 district has drawn competitive fundraising and local focus on economic issues, with Gendebien emphasizing his background as a dairy farmer and Constantino positioning as a Trump-endorsed businessman. Multiple late-summer surveys place Constantino ahead by 4 to 13 points, yet undecided voters and an independent candidate keep the outcome sensitive to turnout among rural and suburban voters. Traders appear to view the race as favoring a modest Republican victory while assigning meaningful probability to narrower margins or an upset, reflecting the district's partisan baseline alongside candidate quality and midterm dynamics. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution point.
The 2026 NY-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,782Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NY-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling in New York's 21st congressional district shows Republican nominee Anthony Constantino and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien separated by single-digit margins in most surveys conducted since primaries concluded in June. The open seat left by Elise Stefanik's retirement in this R+10 district has drawn competitive fundraising and local focus on economic issues, with Gendebien emphasizing his background as a dairy farmer and Constantino positioning as a Trump-endorsed businessman. Multiple late-summer surveys place Constantino ahead by 4 to 13 points, yet undecided voters and an independent candidate keep the outcome sensitive to turnout among rural and suburban voters. Traders appear to view the race as favoring a modest Republican victory while assigning meaningful probability to narrower margins or an upset, reflecting the district's partisan baseline alongside candidate quality and midterm dynamics. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution point.
The 2026 NY-21 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NY-21 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,782Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in New York's 21st congressional district shows Republican nominee Anthony Constantino and Democratic nominee Blake Gendebien separated by single-digit margins in most surveys conducted since primaries concluded in June. The open seat left by Elise Stefanik's retirement in this R+10 district has drawn competitive fundraising and local focus on economic issues, with Gendebien emphasizing his background as a dairy farmer and Constantino positioning as a Trump-endorsed businessman. Multiple late-summer surveys place Constantino ahead by 4 to 13 points, yet undecided voters and an independent candidate keep the outcome sensitive to turnout among rural and suburban voters. Traders appear to view the race as favoring a modest Republican victory while assigning meaningful probability to narrower margins or an upset, reflecting the district's partisan baseline alongside candidate quality and midterm dynamics. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution point.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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