Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar outlets with a D+5 partisan lean. Pallone secured the June primary with over 65 percent of the vote against limited challengers, preserving his long-standing incumbency edge in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 20 points in recent cycles. With no major developments since the March filing deadline and limited Republican resources or polling movement, trader consensus prices the likeliest margin buckets between 20 and 30 points for the Democrat. This reflects the district’s structural fundamentals and historical turnout patterns more than short-term campaign events. Late national shifts or unexpected primary fallout could still alter the final spread before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDemocrata 25-30% 30%
Democrata 20-25% 19.1%
Democrata 30-35% 18%
Democrata 15-20% 14.6%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 40%+
6%
Democrata 35-40%
10%
Democrata 30-35%
18%
Democrata 25-30%
30%
Democrata 20-25%
19%
Democrata 15-20%
15%
Democrata 10-15%
7%
Democrata 0-10%
<1%
Vitória Republicana
<1%
Democrata 25-30% 30%
Democrata 20-25% 19.1%
Democrata 30-35% 18%
Democrata 15-20% 14.6%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Democrata 40%+
$797 Vol.
6%
Democrata 35-40%
$768 Vol.
10%
Democrata 30-35%
$1,605 Vol.
18%
Democrata 25-30%
$1,837 Vol.
30%
Democrata 20-25%
$1,289 Vol.
19%
Democrata 15-20%
$833 Vol.
15%
Democrata 10-15%
$551 Vol.
7%
Democrata 0-10%
$422 Vol.
<1%
Vitória Republicana
$396 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar outlets with a D+5 partisan lean. Pallone secured the June primary with over 65 percent of the vote against limited challengers, preserving his long-standing incumbency edge in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 20 points in recent cycles. With no major developments since the March filing deadline and limited Republican resources or polling movement, trader consensus prices the likeliest margin buckets between 20 and 30 points for the Democrat. This reflects the district’s structural fundamentals and historical turnout patterns more than short-term campaign events. Late national shifts or unexpected primary fallout could still alter the final spread before November 3.
The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
Volume
$8,496Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar outlets with a D+5 partisan lean. Pallone secured the June primary with over 65 percent of the vote against limited challengers, preserving his long-standing incumbency edge in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 20 points in recent cycles. With no major developments since the March filing deadline and limited Republican resources or polling movement, trader consensus prices the likeliest margin buckets between 20 and 30 points for the Democrat. This reflects the district’s structural fundamentals and historical turnout patterns more than short-term campaign events. Late national shifts or unexpected primary fallout could still alter the final spread before November 3.
The 2026 NJ-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NJ-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,496Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Frank Pallone faces Republican Hillary Herzig in New Jersey’s 6th district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar outlets with a D+5 partisan lean. Pallone secured the June primary with over 65 percent of the vote against limited challengers, preserving his long-standing incumbency edge in a district that has delivered consistent Democratic margins above 20 points in recent cycles. With no major developments since the March filing deadline and limited Republican resources or polling movement, trader consensus prices the likeliest margin buckets between 20 and 30 points for the Democrat. This reflects the district’s structural fundamentals and historical turnout patterns more than short-term campaign events. Late national shifts or unexpected primary fallout could still alter the final spread before November 3.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para a Câmara do NJ-07 em 2026 por 18% ou mais?
33%
Sim
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-01 House election by 25%-30%?
27%
O candidato do Partido Republicano vencerá a eleição para a Câmara de NJ-02 em 2026 por uma margem de 6% a 9%?
20%
Sim
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions