Chris Smith’s long incumbency in New Jersey’s 4th District, combined with its consistent Republican lean and the challenger’s limited resources, underpins trader consensus for a strong Republican hold. Smith has represented the Monmouth and Ocean County area since 1981 and won reelection by double-digit margins in prior cycles, including 67 percent in 2024. The seat carries a solidly Republican partisan voter index, and all major forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. Rachel Peace secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary but has raised far less than the incumbent. A late scandal, major health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
$19,214 Vol.
$19,214 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Chris Smith (R)
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
5%
$19,214 Vol.
$19,214 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Chris Smith (R)
$6,168 Vol.
96%
Rachel Peace (D)
$13,046 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Smith’s long incumbency in New Jersey’s 4th District, combined with its consistent Republican lean and the challenger’s limited resources, underpins trader consensus for a strong Republican hold. Smith has represented the Monmouth and Ocean County area since 1981 and won reelection by double-digit margins in prior cycles, including 67 percent in 2024. The seat carries a solidly Republican partisan voter index, and all major forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. Rachel Peace secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary but has raised far less than the incumbent. A late scandal, major health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$19,214Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Chris Smith’s long incumbency in New Jersey’s 4th District, combined with its consistent Republican lean and the challenger’s limited resources, underpins trader consensus for a strong Republican hold. Smith has represented the Monmouth and Ocean County area since 1981 and won reelection by double-digit margins in prior cycles, including 67 percent in 2024. The seat carries a solidly Republican partisan voter index, and all major forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. Rachel Peace secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary but has raised far less than the incumbent. A late scandal, major health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,214Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Chris Smith’s long incumbency in New Jersey’s 4th District, combined with its consistent Republican lean and the challenger’s limited resources, underpins trader consensus for a strong Republican hold. Smith has represented the Monmouth and Ocean County area since 1981 and won reelection by double-digit margins in prior cycles, including 67 percent in 2024. The seat carries a solidly Republican partisan voter index, and all major forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. Rachel Peace secured the Democratic nomination in the June primary but has raised far less than the incumbent. A late scandal, major health event, or unexpected national shift could narrow the margin, though no such developments have surfaced in recent weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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