No federal charges or active DOJ investigations have been publicly documented against Nick Fuentes as of early September 2026, underpinning trader consensus at 99.2% for a “No” outcome by the September 30 resolution deadline. His sole recent criminal proceeding—a 2024 Illinois misdemeanor battery case—concluded via deferred prosecution agreement at the state level, resulting in dismissal without federal referral or escalation. Earlier federal scrutiny, including a closed FBI review tied to January 6 and a congressional subpoena, produced no indictments or ongoing grand jury activity. With weeks remaining and no verifiable new evidence or enforcement signals meeting federal thresholds, the market reflects this lack of catalysts. Late developments such as fresh conduct prompting a rapid probe or shifts in Department of Justice priorities could still alter the trajectory before cutoff.