Federal and state investigations into sexual misconduct allegations against former Rep. Eric Swalwell, including FBI search warrants and device seizures executed in mid-August, have not produced formal charges as of mid-September. Probes by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office and Los Angeles authorities remain active, alongside a federal civil rights inquiry under statutes such as 18 U.S.C. § 242, yet these typically require extended review of evidence before any indictment decision. The narrow window remaining until September 30 further reduces the likelihood of charges within the market’s resolution period, supporting traders’ strong consensus against an outcome by that date.