Stefany Shaheen secured the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District following her narrow primary victory over Maura Sullivan on September 8, consolidating establishment support in an open seat vacated by Chris Pappas. Forecasters rate the district as lean or likely Democratic, reflecting its recent voting patterns and the strength of Shaheen’s family name recognition alongside endorsements from figures including Senator Maggie Hassan. Anthony DiLorenzo’s Republican primary win, backed by President Trump and House leadership, positions him as the challenger but has not shifted the race fundamentals. Trader consensus assigns Shaheen a 90.6% implied probability because the district’s structural tilt and Democratic primary turnout advantage outweigh early Republican organizational efforts. Late developments such as shifts in national conditions, turnout surges in key areas like Manchester or Strafford County, or major campaign events before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$15,120 Vol.
$15,120 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Stefany Shaheen (D)
91%
Anthony DiLorenzo (R)
10%
$15,120 Vol.
$15,120 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Stefany Shaheen (D)
$7,719 Vol.
91%
Anthony DiLorenzo (R)
$7,401 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Stefany Shaheen secured the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District following her narrow primary victory over Maura Sullivan on September 8, consolidating establishment support in an open seat vacated by Chris Pappas. Forecasters rate the district as lean or likely Democratic, reflecting its recent voting patterns and the strength of Shaheen’s family name recognition alongside endorsements from figures including Senator Maggie Hassan. Anthony DiLorenzo’s Republican primary win, backed by President Trump and House leadership, positions him as the challenger but has not shifted the race fundamentals. Trader consensus assigns Shaheen a 90.6% implied probability because the district’s structural tilt and Democratic primary turnout advantage outweigh early Republican organizational efforts. Late developments such as shifts in national conditions, turnout surges in key areas like Manchester or Strafford County, or major campaign events before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Volume
$15,120Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Stefany Shaheen secured the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District following her narrow primary victory over Maura Sullivan on September 8, consolidating establishment support in an open seat vacated by Chris Pappas. Forecasters rate the district as lean or likely Democratic, reflecting its recent voting patterns and the strength of Shaheen’s family name recognition alongside endorsements from figures including Senator Maggie Hassan. Anthony DiLorenzo’s Republican primary win, backed by President Trump and House leadership, positions him as the challenger but has not shifted the race fundamentals. Trader consensus assigns Shaheen a 90.6% implied probability because the district’s structural tilt and Democratic primary turnout advantage outweigh early Republican organizational efforts. Late developments such as shifts in national conditions, turnout surges in key areas like Manchester or Strafford County, or major campaign events before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,120Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Stefany Shaheen secured the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District following her narrow primary victory over Maura Sullivan on September 8, consolidating establishment support in an open seat vacated by Chris Pappas. Forecasters rate the district as lean or likely Democratic, reflecting its recent voting patterns and the strength of Shaheen’s family name recognition alongside endorsements from figures including Senator Maggie Hassan. Anthony DiLorenzo’s Republican primary win, backed by President Trump and House leadership, positions him as the challenger but has not shifted the race fundamentals. Trader consensus assigns Shaheen a 90.6% implied probability because the district’s structural tilt and Democratic primary turnout advantage outweigh early Republican organizational efforts. Late developments such as shifts in national conditions, turnout surges in key areas like Manchester or Strafford County, or major campaign events before November 3 could still narrow the gap.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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