The closely matched probabilities around mid-September for a Grok 4.7 or higher release reflect xAI’s aggressive development cadence and recent signals from leadership on scaling large language models. Traders see strong momentum from ongoing training runs, hardware expansions, and competitive pressure against OpenAI and Anthropic releases, with the September 15–16 cluster capturing the consensus window before potential slippage. Low odds on a no-release outcome by month-end underscore expectations of an imminent launch, while earlier dates carry less weight due to typical final testing and deployment timelines. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or executive updates that could shift the exact window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPróximo Modelo Grok (4.7+) lançado em...?
Próximo Modelo Grok (4.7+) lançado em...?
18 de setembro 41%
17 de setembro 40.5%
15 de setembro 40.4%
16 de setembro 37.9%
NOVO
NOVO
10 set 2026
10 de setembro
1%
11 de setembro
25%
12 de setembro
36%
13 de setembro
1%
14 de setembro
36%
15 de setembro
40%
16 de setembro
38%
17 de setembro
40%
18 de setembro
41%
19 de setembro
1%
20 de setembro
1%
21 de setembro
1%
22 de setembro
3%
23 de setembro
6%
24 de setembro
3%
25 de setembro
1%
26 de setembro
<1%
27 de setembro
<1%
28 de setembro
3%
29 de setembro
23%
30 de setembro
1%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
7%
18 de setembro 41%
17 de setembro 40.5%
15 de setembro 40.4%
16 de setembro 37.9%
NOVO
NOVO
10 set 2026
10 de setembro
$202 Vol.
1%
11 de setembro
$308 Vol.
25%
12 de setembro
$550 Vol.
36%
13 de setembro
$322 Vol.
1%
14 de setembro
$205 Vol.
36%
15 de setembro
$257 Vol.
40%
16 de setembro
$215 Vol.
38%
17 de setembro
$215 Vol.
40%
18 de setembro
$411 Vol.
41%
19 de setembro
$530 Vol.
1%
20 de setembro
$505 Vol.
1%
21 de setembro
$505 Vol.
1%
22 de setembro
$345 Vol.
3%
23 de setembro
$572 Vol.
6%
24 de setembro
$345 Vol.
3%
25 de setembro
$505 Vol.
1%
26 de setembro
$505 Vol.
<1%
27 de setembro
$505 Vol.
<1%
28 de setembro
$379 Vol.
3%
29 de setembro
$379 Vol.
23%
30 de setembro
$505 Vol.
1%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
$345 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities around mid-September for a Grok 4.7 or higher release reflect xAI’s aggressive development cadence and recent signals from leadership on scaling large language models. Traders see strong momentum from ongoing training runs, hardware expansions, and competitive pressure against OpenAI and Anthropic releases, with the September 15–16 cluster capturing the consensus window before potential slippage. Low odds on a no-release outcome by month-end underscore expectations of an imminent launch, while earlier dates carry less weight due to typical final testing and deployment timelines. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or executive updates that could shift the exact window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$8,777Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities around mid-September for a Grok 4.7 or higher release reflect xAI’s aggressive development cadence and recent signals from leadership on scaling large language models. Traders see strong momentum from ongoing training runs, hardware expansions, and competitive pressure against OpenAI and Anthropic releases, with the September 15–16 cluster capturing the consensus window before potential slippage. Low odds on a no-release outcome by month-end underscore expectations of an imminent launch, while earlier dates carry less weight due to typical final testing and deployment timelines. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or executive updates that could shift the exact window.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,777Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around mid-September for a Grok 4.7 or higher release reflect xAI’s aggressive development cadence and recent signals from leadership on scaling large language models. Traders see strong momentum from ongoing training runs, hardware expansions, and competitive pressure against OpenAI and Anthropic releases, with the September 15–16 cluster capturing the consensus window before potential slippage. Low odds on a no-release outcome by month-end underscore expectations of an imminent launch, while earlier dates carry less weight due to typical final testing and deployment timelines. Key swing factors include any last-minute benchmark results or executive updates that could shift the exact window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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