Northeast monsoon flow over the South China coast is the main driver behind current market-implied odds clustering around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 11. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a daytime range of 25–31°C under north to northeast winds of 4–5, with mostly fine, dry conditions and only brief cloudy periods at night that limit radiative cooling. Recent model consensus shows minimal overnight moisture and steady northeasterly advection of cooler air, keeping the expected low near the seasonal baseline rather than the higher values seen earlier in the month. Minor variations in wind speed, cloud timing, or localized urban effects could shift the official reading by 1°C, explaining the tight spread between 24°C and 27°C outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Hong Kong no dia 11 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Hong Kong no dia 11 de setembro?
26°C 39%
25°C 29%
27°C 23%
24°C 10%
NOVO
NOVO
11 set 2026
21°C ou menos
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
10%
25°C
29%
26°C
39%
27°C
23%
28°C
4%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C ou mais
<1%
26°C 39%
25°C 29%
27°C 23%
24°C 10%
NOVO
NOVO
11 set 2026
21°C ou menos
$86 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$186 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$421 Vol.
3%
24°C
$724 Vol.
10%
25°C
$1,335 Vol.
29%
26°C
$1,129 Vol.
39%
27°C
$1,714 Vol.
23%
28°C
$530 Vol.
4%
29°C
$86 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
31°C ou mais
$86 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow over the South China coast is the main driver behind current market-implied odds clustering around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 11. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a daytime range of 25–31°C under north to northeast winds of 4–5, with mostly fine, dry conditions and only brief cloudy periods at night that limit radiative cooling. Recent model consensus shows minimal overnight moisture and steady northeasterly advection of cooler air, keeping the expected low near the seasonal baseline rather than the higher values seen earlier in the month. Minor variations in wind speed, cloud timing, or localized urban effects could shift the official reading by 1°C, explaining the tight spread between 24°C and 27°C outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$5,475Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow over the South China coast is the main driver behind current market-implied odds clustering around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 11. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a daytime range of 25–31°C under north to northeast winds of 4–5, with mostly fine, dry conditions and only brief cloudy periods at night that limit radiative cooling. Recent model consensus shows minimal overnight moisture and steady northeasterly advection of cooler air, keeping the expected low near the seasonal baseline rather than the higher values seen earlier in the month. Minor variations in wind speed, cloud timing, or localized urban effects could shift the official reading by 1°C, explaining the tight spread between 24°C and 27°C outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,475Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northeast monsoon flow over the South China coast is the main driver behind current market-implied odds clustering around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 11. Hong Kong Observatory forecasts indicate a daytime range of 25–31°C under north to northeast winds of 4–5, with mostly fine, dry conditions and only brief cloudy periods at night that limit radiative cooling. Recent model consensus shows minimal overnight moisture and steady northeasterly advection of cooler air, keeping the expected low near the seasonal baseline rather than the higher values seen earlier in the month. Minor variations in wind speed, cloud timing, or localized urban effects could shift the official reading by 1°C, explaining the tight spread between 24°C and 27°C outcomes. Updated HKO guidance and regional observations tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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