Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang nominee and sitting legislator, holds a commanding position in the November 28, 2026, Kinmen County magistrate race due to party unification, extensive local networks, and consistent polling leads. A September 2026 KMT-commissioned survey showed her at 45.4% support against six opponents, outpacing runner-up Li Wen-liang by over 34 points with the rest combined below 18% and more than one-third undecided. Early KMT consolidation, including Yang Cheng-wu’s withdrawal, eliminated internal competition in this offshore county where the party has long dominated magistrate contests. Traders price her victory probability near 95% because her platform on cross-strait ties, long-term care, and local development aligns with voter priorities and lacks credible challengers from other parties. Late developments such as shifts among undecided voters, turnout swings, or unforeseen events could still alter the outcome before election day.