United Russia maintains a dominant 98.5 percent implied probability in the Kaliningrad Oblast parliament election market, driven by its position as the ruling party aligned with federal authorities and its established control over regional legislative bodies. This reflects consistent patterns of strong performance in oblast duma contests, supported by organizational infrastructure, administrative resources, and limited viable opposition in the current electoral framework. Smaller parties including LDPR, Yabloko, and CPRF show negligible trader-assessed chances. Potential shifts could arise from major federal policy changes, localized scandals, or unexpected turnout surges, though these remain low-probability factors within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUnited Russia 97.5%
LDPR 2.6%
Yabloko 2.1%
CPRF <1%
$6,381 Vol.
$6,381 Vol.
20 set 2026
United Russia
98%
LDPR
3%
Yabloko
2%
CPRF
1%
A Just Russia
<1%
New People
<1%
United Russia 97.5%
LDPR 2.6%
Yabloko 2.1%
CPRF <1%
$6,381 Vol.
$6,381 Vol.
20 set 2026
United Russia
$2,366 Vol.
98%
LDPR
$799 Vol.
3%
Yabloko
$1,099 Vol.
2%
CPRF
$753 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia
$732 Vol.
<1%
New People
$631 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia maintains a dominant 98.5 percent implied probability in the Kaliningrad Oblast parliament election market, driven by its position as the ruling party aligned with federal authorities and its established control over regional legislative bodies. This reflects consistent patterns of strong performance in oblast duma contests, supported by organizational infrastructure, administrative resources, and limited viable opposition in the current electoral framework. Smaller parties including LDPR, Yabloko, and CPRF show negligible trader-assessed chances. Potential shifts could arise from major federal policy changes, localized scandals, or unexpected turnout surges, though these remain low-probability factors within the resolution window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 28, 2026, 11:55 AM ET
Volume
$6,381Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia maintains a dominant 98.5 percent implied probability in the Kaliningrad Oblast parliament election market, driven by its position as the ruling party aligned with federal authorities and its established control over regional legislative bodies. This reflects consistent patterns of strong performance in oblast duma contests, supported by organizational infrastructure, administrative resources, and limited viable opposition in the current electoral framework. Smaller parties including LDPR, Yabloko, and CPRF show negligible trader-assessed chances. Potential shifts could arise from major federal policy changes, localized scandals, or unexpected turnout surges, though these remain low-probability factors within the resolution window.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Legislative Assembly of Kaliningrad Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Kaliningrad Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Kaliningrad Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
Volume
$6,381Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 11:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...United Russia maintains a dominant 98.5 percent implied probability in the Kaliningrad Oblast parliament election market, driven by its position as the ruling party aligned with federal authorities and its established control over regional legislative bodies. This reflects consistent patterns of strong performance in oblast duma contests, supported by organizational infrastructure, administrative resources, and limited viable opposition in the current electoral framework. Smaller parties including LDPR, Yabloko, and CPRF show negligible trader-assessed chances. Potential shifts could arise from major federal policy changes, localized scandals, or unexpected turnout surges, though these remain low-probability factors within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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