Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now approaching super-El Niño strength with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7 °C and forecasts for further intensification through late 2026, combine with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven warming trend to keep September 2026 temperatures near record levels. August 2026 tied July 2023 as Earth’s hottest month on record at 1.65 °C above pre-industrial baselines according to Copernicus data, reflecting elevated sea-surface temperatures and land heat that typically carry forward into September. This positions the month most likely as the second-warmest September behind 2023 or 2024, while the narrow gap to first place and limited downside risk from model consensus keep 2nd-hottest as the dominant trader outcome. Ongoing Copernicus and NOAA monthly releases will refine these rankings as the month progresses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
1º, 2º ou 3º de setembro de 2026 mais quente já registrado?
2º mais quente 82%
Mais quente 11%
3º mais quente 6.6%
4º ou inferior 5.4%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
11%
2º mais quente
88%
3º mais quente
7%
4º ou inferior
5%
2º mais quente 82%
Mais quente 11%
3º mais quente 6.6%
4º ou inferior 5.4%
NOVO
NOVO
30 set 2026
Mais quente
$349 Vol.
11%
2º mais quente
$1 Vol.
88%
3º mais quente
$191 Vol.
7%
4º ou inferior
$250 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now approaching super-El Niño strength with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7 °C and forecasts for further intensification through late 2026, combine with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven warming trend to keep September 2026 temperatures near record levels. August 2026 tied July 2023 as Earth’s hottest month on record at 1.65 °C above pre-industrial baselines according to Copernicus data, reflecting elevated sea-surface temperatures and land heat that typically carry forward into September. This positions the month most likely as the second-warmest September behind 2023 or 2024, while the narrow gap to first place and limited downside risk from model consensus keep 2nd-hottest as the dominant trader outcome. Ongoing Copernicus and NOAA monthly releases will refine these rankings as the month progresses.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$791Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now approaching super-El Niño strength with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7 °C and forecasts for further intensification through late 2026, combine with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven warming trend to keep September 2026 temperatures near record levels. August 2026 tied July 2023 as Earth’s hottest month on record at 1.65 °C above pre-industrial baselines according to Copernicus data, reflecting elevated sea-surface temperatures and land heat that typically carry forward into September. This positions the month most likely as the second-warmest September behind 2023 or 2024, while the narrow gap to first place and limited downside risk from model consensus keep 2nd-hottest as the dominant trader outcome. Ongoing Copernicus and NOAA monthly releases will refine these rankings as the month progresses.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$791Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, now approaching super-El Niño strength with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.7 °C and forecasts for further intensification through late 2026, combine with the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven warming trend to keep September 2026 temperatures near record levels. August 2026 tied July 2023 as Earth’s hottest month on record at 1.65 °C above pre-industrial baselines according to Copernicus data, reflecting elevated sea-surface temperatures and land heat that typically carry forward into September. This positions the month most likely as the second-warmest September behind 2023 or 2024, while the narrow gap to first place and limited downside risk from model consensus keep 2nd-hottest as the dominant trader outcome. Ongoing Copernicus and NOAA monthly releases will refine these rankings as the month progresses.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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