**Trader consensus heavily favors 400-500k deportations in calendar year 2026 at 74.5% implied probability, with 500-600k a distant second at 12.4%.** This positioning stems from official ICE removal data showing fiscal year 2026 on pace for roughly 400-450k total removals, consistent with recent monthly averages near 1,200-1,260 per day through mid-July. Key drivers include a sharp rise in interior arrests and detentions following expanded enforcement resources and priorities, offset by sharply lower border encounters that reduced one major removal category. Fiscal year 2025 totals landed in a similar range (around 320k-443k depending on the dataset), while the administration’s 1 million annual target has not materialized due to logistical constraints on flights, detention capacity, and court processing. Recent developments reinforcing the 400-500k band include sustained high arrest volumes in summer 2026 without proportional deportation gains, ongoing legal challenges to expedited or third-country removal policies, and the absence of verified large-scale self-deportation data in official statistics. These factors have kept realized numbers aligned with historical peaks rather than campaign-scale projections, shaping the current market distribution.