Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.8%) to 1-100 Gold Cards sold in 2026 because the program, established by executive order in September 2025, has recorded minimal finalized approvals despite early administration claims of rapid uptake. Official updates through mid-2026 showed only one completed approval, roughly 338 applications received, and 165 processing fees paid amid extended vetting. Legal challenges questioning executive authority remain unresolved, while visa availability constraints and the $1 million individual or $2 million corporate contribution requirement have limited broader participation. These factors have kept implied probabilities for higher brackets such as 101-1k or above 25k below 5% each, reflecting trader assessment of persistent structural and procedural barriers through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1-100 76.2%
>100 mil 4.9%
101-1k 3.6%
25 mil-100 mil 1.8%
$293,275 Vol.
$293,275 Vol.
31 dez 2026
1-100
65%
101-1k
4%
1k-2,5k
1%
2,5 mil-5 mil
<1%
5 mil-10 mil
2%
10k-25k
2%
25 mil-100 mil
2%
>100 mil
5%
1-100 76.2%
>100 mil 4.9%
101-1k 3.6%
25 mil-100 mil 1.8%
$293,275 Vol.
$293,275 Vol.
31 dez 2026
1-100
$18,522 Vol.
65%
101-1k
$41,423 Vol.
4%
1k-2,5k
$11,376 Vol.
1%
2,5 mil-5 mil
$11,094 Vol.
<1%
5 mil-10 mil
$11,989 Vol.
2%
10k-25k
$116,872 Vol.
2%
25 mil-100 mil
$11,454 Vol.
2%
>100 mil
$26,118 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.8%) to 1-100 Gold Cards sold in 2026 because the program, established by executive order in September 2025, has recorded minimal finalized approvals despite early administration claims of rapid uptake. Official updates through mid-2026 showed only one completed approval, roughly 338 applications received, and 165 processing fees paid amid extended vetting. Legal challenges questioning executive authority remain unresolved, while visa availability constraints and the $1 million individual or $2 million corporate contribution requirement have limited broader participation. These factors have kept implied probabilities for higher brackets such as 101-1k or above 25k below 5% each, reflecting trader assessment of persistent structural and procedural barriers through year-end.
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ET
Volume
$293,275Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.8%) to 1-100 Gold Cards sold in 2026 because the program, established by executive order in September 2025, has recorded minimal finalized approvals despite early administration claims of rapid uptake. Official updates through mid-2026 showed only one completed approval, roughly 338 applications received, and 165 processing fees paid amid extended vetting. Legal challenges questioning executive authority remain unresolved, while visa availability constraints and the $1 million individual or $2 million corporate contribution requirement have limited broader participation. These factors have kept implied probabilities for higher brackets such as 101-1k or above 25k below 5% each, reflecting trader assessment of persistent structural and procedural barriers through year-end.
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$293,275Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the highest probability (64.8%) to 1-100 Gold Cards sold in 2026 because the program, established by executive order in September 2025, has recorded minimal finalized approvals despite early administration claims of rapid uptake. Official updates through mid-2026 showed only one completed approval, roughly 338 applications received, and 165 processing fees paid amid extended vetting. Legal challenges questioning executive authority remain unresolved, while visa availability constraints and the $1 million individual or $2 million corporate contribution requirement have limited broader participation. These factors have kept implied probabilities for higher brackets such as 101-1k or above 25k below 5% each, reflecting trader assessment of persistent structural and procedural barriers through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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