Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District stems from his status as a four-term incumbent in a district with a strong Democratic lean, where he secured 71.8% of the vote in 2024. Case defeated a progressive primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote, demonstrating durable party support ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the urban Oahu district. While trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, outcomes could shift in the event of late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high third-party turnout among the minor candidates also on the ballot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara HI-01
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara HI-01
$35,619 Vol.
$35,619 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,619 Vol.
$35,619 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 Vol.
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,465 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District stems from his status as a four-term incumbent in a district with a strong Democratic lean, where he secured 71.8% of the vote in 2024. Case defeated a progressive primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote, demonstrating durable party support ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the urban Oahu district. While trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, outcomes could shift in the event of late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high third-party turnout among the minor candidates also on the ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,619Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District stems from his status as a four-term incumbent in a district with a strong Democratic lean, where he secured 71.8% of the vote in 2024. Case defeated a progressive primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote, demonstrating durable party support ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the urban Oahu district. While trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, outcomes could shift in the event of late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high third-party turnout among the minor candidates also on the ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,619Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Case's commanding position in Hawaii's 1st Congressional District stems from his status as a four-term incumbent in a district with a strong Democratic lean, where he secured 71.8% of the vote in 2024. Case defeated a progressive primary challenger in August 2026 with roughly 60% of the vote, demonstrating durable party support ahead of the November general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent voter patterns and limited Republican infrastructure in the urban Oahu district. While trader consensus aligns with these structural factors, outcomes could shift in the event of late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or unusually high third-party turnout among the minor candidates also on the ballot.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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