**The fragmented field of five candidates in the closed two-round Socialist primary (9–10 October first round; 16–17 October runoff if needed) supports traders’ 64.5% probability that no one secures an outright majority on the first ballot.** Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique enters as the early frontrunner in national polling and internal assessments, yet Olivier Faure (PS first secretary), Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel (GRS) each draw distinct factional or personal support bases within the limited electorate of paid-up members and sympathizers. Recent confirmation of candidacies in mid-September, the exclusion of Philippe Brun amid misconduct allegations, and the scheduling of three televised debates have not produced consolidation behind any single contender. Internal party divisions over strategy and the closed voting rules further fragment preferences, making a first-round majority historically uncommon in comparable Socialist contests and consistent with current trader pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
30% chance
NOVO
NOVO
10 out 2026
Sim
30% chance
NOVO
NOVO
10 out 2026
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.**The fragmented field of five candidates in the closed two-round Socialist primary (9–10 October first round; 16–17 October runoff if needed) supports traders’ 64.5% probability that no one secures an outright majority on the first ballot.**
Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique enters as the early frontrunner in national polling and internal assessments, yet Olivier Faure (PS first secretary), Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel (GRS) each draw distinct factional or personal support bases within the limited electorate of paid-up members and sympathizers. Recent confirmation of candidacies in mid-September, the exclusion of Philippe Brun amid misconduct allegations, and the scheduling of three televised debates have not produced consolidation behind any single contender. Internal party divisions over strategy and the closed voting rules further fragment preferences, making a first-round majority historically uncommon in comparable Socialist contests and consistent with current trader pricing.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Volume
$645Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.**The fragmented field of five candidates in the closed two-round Socialist primary (9–10 October first round; 16–17 October runoff if needed) supports traders’ 64.5% probability that no one secures an outright majority on the first ballot.**
Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique enters as the early frontrunner in national polling and internal assessments, yet Olivier Faure (PS first secretary), Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel (GRS) each draw distinct factional or personal support bases within the limited electorate of paid-up members and sympathizers. Recent confirmation of candidacies in mid-September, the exclusion of Philippe Brun amid misconduct allegations, and the scheduling of three televised debates have not produced consolidation behind any single contender. Internal party divisions over strategy and the closed voting rules further fragment preferences, making a first-round majority historically uncommon in comparable Socialist contests and consistent with current trader pricing.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$645Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The fragmented field of five candidates in the closed two-round Socialist primary (9–10 October first round; 16–17 October runoff if needed) supports traders’ 64.5% probability that no one secures an outright majority on the first ballot.** Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique enters as the early frontrunner in national polling and internal assessments, yet Olivier Faure (PS first secretary), Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel (GRS) each draw distinct factional or personal support bases within the limited electorate of paid-up members and sympathizers. Recent confirmation of candidacies in mid-September, the exclusion of Philippe Brun amid misconduct allegations, and the scheduling of three televised debates have not produced consolidation behind any single contender. Internal party divisions over strategy and the closed voting rules further fragment preferences, making a first-round majority historically uncommon in comparable Socialist contests and consistent with current trader pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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