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icon for Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw

Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw

icon for Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw

Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw

Mike Derry 94%

Kyle Campbell 4.3%

John Roggeveen <1%

Kyle Joseph <1%

Polymarket

$21,588 Vol.

Mike Derry 94%

Kyle Campbell 4.3%

John Roggeveen <1%

Kyle Joseph <1%

Polymarket

$21,588 Vol.

icon for Mike Derry

Mike Derry

$11,524 Vol.

94%

icon for Kyle Campbell

Kyle Campbell

$7,884 Vol.

4%

icon for John Roggeveen

John Roggeveen

$1,141 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kyle Joseph

Kyle Joseph

$1,039 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Calgary-Shaw by-election due to the riding’s consistent United Conservative Party support in recent provincial votes and his status as the official UCP nominee following a June membership contest win. Premier Danielle Smith and cabinet ministers have actively campaigned alongside him ahead of the September 14 vote, emphasizing local priorities such as affordability, school capacity, and economic growth in this southwest Calgary district. Advance voting concluded on September 12 with election day imminent. Kyle Campbell of the NDP remains the primary challenger in a riding where opposition prospects have historically been limited, while other candidates including Kyle Joseph and John Roggeveen register minimal support. Late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could still alter the outcome before polls close.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$21,588
Data de Término
14 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Calgary-Shaw by-election due to the riding’s consistent United Conservative Party support in recent provincial votes and his status as the official UCP nominee following a June membership contest win. Premier Danielle Smith and cabinet ministers have actively campaigned alongside him ahead of the September 14 vote, emphasizing local priorities such as affordability, school capacity, and economic growth in this southwest Calgary district. Advance voting concluded on September 12 with election day imminent. Kyle Campbell of the NDP remains the primary challenger in a riding where opposition prospects have historically been limited, while other candidates including Kyle Joseph and John Roggeveen register minimal support. Late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could still alter the outcome before polls close.

A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
A by-election for the Alberta provincial electoral district of Calgary-Shaw is currently scheduled to be held on September 14, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Volume
$21,588
Data de Término
14 set 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Derry" at 94%, followed by "Kyle Campbell" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw" has generated $21.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw" is "Mike Derry" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Kyle Campbell" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da Eleição Especial Provincial de Calgary-Shaw" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.