Recent U.S. GDP data and institutional forecasts underpin the 61% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Q2 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in Q1, with consumer spending and AI-related business investment providing offsets amid softer government outlays. Projections from the IMF, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2–2.4%, reflecting resilient productivity gains and capital expenditure on data centers despite elevated core PCE inflation near 3.4% and tariff-related price pressures. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance, with markets pricing potential rate hikes at the September FOMC meeting, adds a restraint on demand. Trader consensus prices limited downside risk below 1.5% given the absence of recession signals in labor-market data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2,0–2,5% 61%
1,5–2,0% 11.8%
>2,5% 9.8%
<0,5% 3.8%
$68,035 Vol.
$68,035 Vol.
28 jan 2027
<0,5%
4%
0,5–1,0%
1%
1,0–1,5%
1%
1,5–2,0%
12%
2,0–2,5%
61%
>2,5%
10%
2,0–2,5% 61%
1,5–2,0% 11.8%
>2,5% 9.8%
<0,5% 3.8%
$68,035 Vol.
$68,035 Vol.
28 jan 2027
<0,5%
$7,983 Vol.
4%
0,5–1,0%
$17,634 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,5%
$4,234 Vol.
1%
1,5–2,0%
$8,511 Vol.
12%
2,0–2,5%
$12,783 Vol.
61%
>2,5%
$16,890 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP data and institutional forecasts underpin the 61% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Q2 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in Q1, with consumer spending and AI-related business investment providing offsets amid softer government outlays. Projections from the IMF, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2–2.4%, reflecting resilient productivity gains and capital expenditure on data centers despite elevated core PCE inflation near 3.4% and tariff-related price pressures. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance, with markets pricing potential rate hikes at the September FOMC meeting, adds a restraint on demand. Trader consensus prices limited downside risk below 1.5% given the absence of recession signals in labor-market data.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$68,035Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP data and institutional forecasts underpin the 61% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Q2 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in Q1, with consumer spending and AI-related business investment providing offsets amid softer government outlays. Projections from the IMF, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2–2.4%, reflecting resilient productivity gains and capital expenditure on data centers despite elevated core PCE inflation near 3.4% and tariff-related price pressures. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance, with markets pricing potential rate hikes at the September FOMC meeting, adds a restraint on demand. Trader consensus prices limited downside risk below 1.5% given the absence of recession signals in labor-market data.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$68,035Data de Término
29 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. GDP data and institutional forecasts underpin the 61% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Q2 2026 real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate, down from 2.1% in Q1, with consumer spending and AI-related business investment providing offsets amid softer government outlays. Projections from the IMF, Deloitte, and S&P Global cluster near 2.2–2.4%, reflecting resilient productivity gains and capital expenditure on data centers despite elevated core PCE inflation near 3.4% and tariff-related price pressures. The Federal Reserve’s policy stance, with markets pricing potential rate hikes at the September FOMC meeting, adds a restraint on demand. Trader consensus prices limited downside risk below 1.5% given the absence of recession signals in labor-market data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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