Jerry Carl secured the Republican nomination for Alabama’s 1st Congressional District in an August 2026 special primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, backed by an endorsement from President Trump and strong fundraising. The district, which includes Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding Gulf Coast counties under the current map, carries a substantial Republican baseline advantage exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and earns “Solid Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Carl’s prior service representing the area from 2021 to 2025, combined with unified party support after the primary, underpins the 95 percent implied probability traders assign to his general-election victory on November 3. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones Jr. has raised minimal funds and faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican territory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or sharp national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAL-01 Vencedor da Eleição da Casa
AL-01 Vencedor da Eleição da Casa
$47,794 Vol.
$47,794 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jerry Carl (R)
95%
Clyde Jones Jr. (D)
2%
$47,794 Vol.
$47,794 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Jerry Carl (R)
$21,387 Vol.
95%
Clyde Jones Jr. (D)
$26,406 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jerry Carl secured the Republican nomination for Alabama’s 1st Congressional District in an August 2026 special primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, backed by an endorsement from President Trump and strong fundraising. The district, which includes Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding Gulf Coast counties under the current map, carries a substantial Republican baseline advantage exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and earns “Solid Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Carl’s prior service representing the area from 2021 to 2025, combined with unified party support after the primary, underpins the 95 percent implied probability traders assign to his general-election victory on November 3. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones Jr. has raised minimal funds and faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican territory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or sharp national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ET
Volume
$47,794Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jerry Carl secured the Republican nomination for Alabama’s 1st Congressional District in an August 2026 special primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, backed by an endorsement from President Trump and strong fundraising. The district, which includes Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding Gulf Coast counties under the current map, carries a substantial Republican baseline advantage exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and earns “Solid Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Carl’s prior service representing the area from 2021 to 2025, combined with unified party support after the primary, underpins the 95 percent implied probability traders assign to his general-election victory on November 3. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones Jr. has raised minimal funds and faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican territory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or sharp national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,794Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:53 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jerry Carl secured the Republican nomination for Alabama’s 1st Congressional District in an August 2026 special primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote, backed by an endorsement from President Trump and strong fundraising. The district, which includes Mobile, Baldwin, and surrounding Gulf Coast counties under the current map, carries a substantial Republican baseline advantage exceeding 30 points in recent cycles and earns “Solid Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Carl’s prior service representing the area from 2021 to 2025, combined with unified party support after the primary, underpins the 95 percent implied probability traders assign to his general-election victory on November 3. Democratic nominee Clyde Jones Jr. has raised minimal funds and faces structural headwinds in the solidly Republican territory. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or sharp national political shift could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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