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icon for Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?
Política·Reino Unido

Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?

icon for Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?
Política·Reino Unido

Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?

jan 1, 2027

jan 1, 2027

NOVO
31 out 2026
Polymarket

$129 Vol.

Polymarket

31 de outubro

$57 Vol.

14%

31 de dezembro

$72 Vol.

35%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent resignations have shaped expectations for the next parliamentary by-election writ. Keir Starmer stepped down as MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 1 September 2026 after leaving the premiership, with the contest now set for 8 October. This follows the August Clacton by-election and earlier vacancies such as Makerfield. Under UK procedure, the party holding the seat typically moves the writ through the Commons, after which the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery issues it, triggering a 21-to-27 working day timetable. Trader focus centers on whether any further vacancies arise before late September from health, career, or procedural moves, alongside the timing of the current writ relative to the October poll and any intervening parliamentary business.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$129
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent resignations have shaped expectations for the next parliamentary by-election writ. Keir Starmer stepped down as MP for Holborn and St Pancras on 1 September 2026 after leaving the premiership, with the contest now set for 8 October. This follows the August Clacton by-election and earlier vacancies such as Makerfield. Under UK procedure, the party holding the seat typically moves the writ through the Commons, after which the Clerk of the Crown in Chancery issues it, triggering a 21-to-27 working day timetable. Trader focus centers on whether any further vacancies arise before late September from health, career, or procedural moves, alongside the timing of the current writ relative to the October poll and any intervening parliamentary business.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.

Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$129
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 61%, followed by "31 de outubro" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?" is "31 de dezembro" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de outubro" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Próxima eleição suplementar no Reino Unido convocada por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.