Trader consensus on the "No" outcome at 98.6% stems from continuous monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and global sky surveys, which have identified no asteroids or meteoroids capable of a 1-megaton impact trajectory for 2026. Orbital tracking data, radar observations, and AI-assisted detection systems show no objects of the required 50–100 meter scale on collision courses, consistent with historical impact rates of roughly one per century for that yield. While an undetected small body or last-minute orbital perturbation remains theoretically possible, the probability stays negligible given existing surveillance coverage and the absence of any credible alerts from agencies or observatories.