**Trader consensus assigns an 85% probability that long-term capital gains tax rates will not be cut before 2027.** The top rate has remained at 20% (plus the 3.8% net investment income tax) since 2013, with the 0/15/20% structure preserved under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025. That reconciliation measure extended and augmented 2017 tax cuts but left headline capital gains rates and brackets untouched despite earlier discussions of reforms. In August 2026, White House officials including National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and adviser Larry Kudlow floated targeted ideas such as indexing gains to inflation or raising the primary residence exclusion ahead of the November midterms. These proposals have not advanced into legislation. Congressional leaders have indicated the short remaining session makes passage before the elections improbable, with any action more likely in a lame-duck period. Broader rate reductions would require new reconciliation or regular-order legislation amid competing priorities like deficit management and other tax provisions. No scheduled votes, executive actions, or confirmed legislative timelines currently point to a material cut materializing before 2027. The market pricing reflects these procedural and calendar constraints rather than any formal reversal of the administration’s stated interest in relief.