Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale amphibious buildup, troop movements, or command signals in the final days before the deadline. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense report released August 31 assessed that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full joint landing operation remain inadequate despite incremental improvements in logistics and blockade planning. Routine gray-zone pressure continues, including PLA aircraft sorties, naval deployments, and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside recent Taiwanese missile and drone drills monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle. An upcoming Trump-Xi summit later this month provides an additional diplomatic channel. A sudden shift in the next ten days would require an improbable surprise escalation or miscalculation, given the logistical demands of any cross-strait operation and the current operational tempo.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano<1% szansa
$2,160,647 Wol.
$2,160,647 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% szansa
$2,160,647 Wol.
$2,160,647 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale amphibious buildup, troop movements, or command signals in the final days before the deadline. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense report released August 31 assessed that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full joint landing operation remain inadequate despite incremental improvements in logistics and blockade planning. Routine gray-zone pressure continues, including PLA aircraft sorties, naval deployments, and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside recent Taiwanese missile and drone drills monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle. An upcoming Trump-Xi summit later this month provides an additional diplomatic channel. A sudden shift in the next ten days would require an improbable surprise escalation or miscalculation, given the logistical demands of any cross-strait operation and the current operational tempo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,160,647Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale amphibious buildup, troop movements, or command signals in the final days before the deadline. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense report released August 31 assessed that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full joint landing operation remain inadequate despite incremental improvements in logistics and blockade planning. Routine gray-zone pressure continues, including PLA aircraft sorties, naval deployments, and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside recent Taiwanese missile and drone drills monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle. An upcoming Trump-Xi summit later this month provides an additional diplomatic channel. A sudden shift in the next ten days would require an improbable surprise escalation or miscalculation, given the logistical demands of any cross-strait operation and the current operational tempo.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$2,160,647Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified large-scale amphibious buildup, troop movements, or command signals in the final days before the deadline. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense report released August 31 assessed that People’s Liberation Army capabilities for a full joint landing operation remain inadequate despite incremental improvements in logistics and blockade planning. Routine gray-zone pressure continues, including PLA aircraft sorties, naval deployments, and coast guard patrols around the island, alongside recent Taiwanese missile and drone drills monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle. An upcoming Trump-Xi summit later this month provides an additional diplomatic channel. A sudden shift in the next ten days would require an improbable surprise escalation or miscalculation, given the logistical demands of any cross-strait operation and the current operational tempo.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania