Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted leading or near-leading scores on benchmarks like Arena and Artificial Analysis for coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks while undercutting U.S. frontier pricing, has anchored trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max series, including the recent 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max-0902 refresh with strong Code Arena results and massive open-weight ecosystem reach, sits at 29.5% as the closest challenger through scale and enterprise adoption. Z.ai's GLM-5 multimodal updates and DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 inference efficiency add competitive pressure, but the market reflects Moonshot's recent performance edge amid fast Chinese release cycles where new model drops or third-party evaluations could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
Moonshot 47%
Alibaba 30%
Z.ai 15%
Tencent 3.5%
$23,814 Wol.
$23,814 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
47%
Alibaba
30%
Z.ai
15%
Tencent
4%
Baidu
3%
MiniMax
3%
StepFun
3%
Xiaomi
3%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
2%
Meituan
1%
Moonshot 47%
Alibaba 30%
Z.ai 15%
Tencent 3.5%
$23,814 Wol.
$23,814 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
$14,881 Wol.
47%
Alibaba
$805 Wol.
30%
Z.ai
$4,057 Wol.
15%
Tencent
$397 Wol.
4%
Baidu
$1,175 Wol.
3%
MiniMax
$423 Wol.
3%
StepFun
$450 Wol.
3%
Xiaomi
$550 Wol.
3%
DeepSeek
$325 Wol.
2%
ByteDance
$410 Wol.
2%
Meituan
$341 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted leading or near-leading scores on benchmarks like Arena and Artificial Analysis for coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks while undercutting U.S. frontier pricing, has anchored trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max series, including the recent 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max-0902 refresh with strong Code Arena results and massive open-weight ecosystem reach, sits at 29.5% as the closest challenger through scale and enterprise adoption. Z.ai's GLM-5 multimodal updates and DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 inference efficiency add competitive pressure, but the market reflects Moonshot's recent performance edge amid fast Chinese release cycles where new model drops or third-party evaluations could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$23,814Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted leading or near-leading scores on benchmarks like Arena and Artificial Analysis for coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks while undercutting U.S. frontier pricing, has anchored trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max series, including the recent 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max-0902 refresh with strong Code Arena results and massive open-weight ecosystem reach, sits at 29.5% as the closest challenger through scale and enterprise adoption. Z.ai's GLM-5 multimodal updates and DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 inference efficiency add competitive pressure, but the market reflects Moonshot's recent performance edge amid fast Chinese release cycles where new model drops or third-party evaluations could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$23,814Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI's July 2026 launch of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 open-weight model, which posted leading or near-leading scores on benchmarks like Arena and Artificial Analysis for coding, reasoning, and long-context tasks while undercutting U.S. frontier pricing, has anchored trader consensus at 46.5% implied probability for second place by end-October. Alibaba's Qwen3.8-Max series, including the recent 2.4-trillion-parameter Qwen3.8-Max-0902 refresh with strong Code Arena results and massive open-weight ecosystem reach, sits at 29.5% as the closest challenger through scale and enterprise adoption. Z.ai's GLM-5 multimodal updates and DeepSeek's ultra-low-cost V4 inference efficiency add competitive pressure, but the market reflects Moonshot's recent performance edge amid fast Chinese release cycles where new model drops or third-party evaluations could still shift relative positioning before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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