The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and the science-based stockpile stewardship program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead safety and reliability. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China prompted immediate administration clarifications that activities would remain limited to non-explosive system tests and subcritical work that does not produce a nuclear chain reaction. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary, have stated there is no current technical or military requirement for full-yield explosive tests, though internal planning documents reference readiness timelines of 24–36 months and potential activities through 2028. Bipartisan opposition in Nevada, congressional resolutions, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced the low likelihood of an explosive detonation meeting standard market definitions in the near term.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$795,305 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 września 2026
1%
31 grudnia 2026
5%
$795,305 Wol.
30 września 2026
$57,574 Wol.
1%
31 grudnia 2026
$76,920 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and the science-based stockpile stewardship program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead safety and reliability. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China prompted immediate administration clarifications that activities would remain limited to non-explosive system tests and subcritical work that does not produce a nuclear chain reaction. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary, have stated there is no current technical or military requirement for full-yield explosive tests, though internal planning documents reference readiness timelines of 24–36 months and potential activities through 2028. Bipartisan opposition in Nevada, congressional resolutions, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced the low likelihood of an explosive detonation meeting standard market definitions in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$795,305Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and the science-based stockpile stewardship program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead safety and reliability. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China prompted immediate administration clarifications that activities would remain limited to non-explosive system tests and subcritical work that does not produce a nuclear chain reaction. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary, have stated there is no current technical or military requirement for full-yield explosive tests, though internal planning documents reference readiness timelines of 24–36 months and potential activities through 2028. Bipartisan opposition in Nevada, congressional resolutions, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced the low likelihood of an explosive detonation meeting standard market definitions in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$795,305Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and the science-based stockpile stewardship program at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead safety and reliability. President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China prompted immediate administration clarifications that activities would remain limited to non-explosive system tests and subcritical work that does not produce a nuclear chain reaction. Senior officials, including the Energy Secretary, have stated there is no current technical or military requirement for full-yield explosive tests, though internal planning documents reference readiness timelines of 24–36 months and potential activities through 2028. Bipartisan opposition in Nevada, congressional resolutions, and international monitoring concerns have reinforced the low likelihood of an explosive detonation meeting standard market definitions in the near term.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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