Brandon Herrera holds a 68% implied probability in the TX-23 general election because the district’s Republican lean, shown in recent presidential voting margins, favors the GOP nominee following incumbent Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal after a personal scandal. Herrera advanced through the March primary and has maintained a polling edge, including a 47-41 lead in a late-July survey of likely voters, while outraising Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Her 31% reflects endorsements from gun-safety advocates and the DCCC’s August targeting of the seat, yet faces structural headwinds in a Hispanic-majority district rated Likely Republican by forecasters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle shifts reported through early September.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTX-23 House Election Winner
TX-23 House Election Winner
$40,073 Wol.
$40,073 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brandon Herrera (R)
68%
Katy Padilla Stout (D)
31%
$40,073 Wol.
$40,073 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Brandon Herrera (R)
$23,695 Wol.
68%
Katy Padilla Stout (D)
$16,378 Wol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brandon Herrera holds a 68% implied probability in the TX-23 general election because the district’s Republican lean, shown in recent presidential voting margins, favors the GOP nominee following incumbent Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal after a personal scandal. Herrera advanced through the March primary and has maintained a polling edge, including a 47-41 lead in a late-July survey of likely voters, while outraising Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Her 31% reflects endorsements from gun-safety advocates and the DCCC’s August targeting of the seat, yet faces structural headwinds in a Hispanic-majority district rated Likely Republican by forecasters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle shifts reported through early September.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Wolumen
$40,073Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brandon Herrera holds a 68% implied probability in the TX-23 general election because the district’s Republican lean, shown in recent presidential voting margins, favors the GOP nominee following incumbent Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal after a personal scandal. Herrera advanced through the March primary and has maintained a polling edge, including a 47-41 lead in a late-July survey of likely voters, while outraising Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Her 31% reflects endorsements from gun-safety advocates and the DCCC’s August targeting of the seat, yet faces structural headwinds in a Hispanic-majority district rated Likely Republican by forecasters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle shifts reported through early September.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$40,073Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Brandon Herrera holds a 68% implied probability in the TX-23 general election because the district’s Republican lean, shown in recent presidential voting margins, favors the GOP nominee following incumbent Tony Gonzales’s withdrawal after a personal scandal. Herrera advanced through the March primary and has maintained a polling edge, including a 47-41 lead in a late-July survey of likely voters, while outraising Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Her 31% reflects endorsements from gun-safety advocates and the DCCC’s August targeting of the seat, yet faces structural headwinds in a Hispanic-majority district rated Likely Republican by forecasters. The November 3 contest remains the key resolution trigger, with limited late-cycle shifts reported through early September.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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