Alphabet's public market capitalization near $4.25 trillion as of mid-September 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$860 billion secondary marks) and Anthropic (~$885–965 billion post its May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for Google. Revenue scale and stability favor Alphabet, whose advertising and cloud businesses generate hundreds of billions annually with consistent profitability, while the AI labs' rapid ARR growth—OpenAI exceeding $40 billion annualized and Anthropic near $47 billion—still leaves their enterprise values far smaller despite massive funding rounds and IPO preparations. Recent investor discussions around potential $1.2 trillion+ rounds for OpenAI highlight upside optionality but have not materially narrowed the differential in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include Alphabet's October earnings and any finalization of the labs' listing timelines, though resolution by December 31 remains distant enough that current capital-market pricing reflects the entrenched size advantage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoOpenAI + Anthropic
21% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 4, 2027
OpenAI + Anthropic
21% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 4, 2027
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Alphabet's public market capitalization near $4.25 trillion as of mid-September 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$860 billion secondary marks) and Anthropic (~$885–965 billion post its May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for Google. Revenue scale and stability favor Alphabet, whose advertising and cloud businesses generate hundreds of billions annually with consistent profitability, while the AI labs' rapid ARR growth—OpenAI exceeding $40 billion annualized and Anthropic near $47 billion—still leaves their enterprise values far smaller despite massive funding rounds and IPO preparations. Recent investor discussions around potential $1.2 trillion+ rounds for OpenAI highlight upside optionality but have not materially narrowed the differential in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include Alphabet's October earnings and any finalization of the labs' listing timelines, though resolution by December 31 remains distant enough that current capital-market pricing reflects the entrenched size advantage.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Rynek otwarty: May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,778Data zakończenia
Jan 5, 2027Rynek otwarty
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Alphabet's public market capitalization near $4.25 trillion as of mid-September 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$860 billion secondary marks) and Anthropic (~$885–965 billion post its May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for Google. Revenue scale and stability favor Alphabet, whose advertising and cloud businesses generate hundreds of billions annually with consistent profitability, while the AI labs' rapid ARR growth—OpenAI exceeding $40 billion annualized and Anthropic near $47 billion—still leaves their enterprise values far smaller despite massive funding rounds and IPO preparations. Recent investor discussions around potential $1.2 trillion+ rounds for OpenAI highlight upside optionality but have not materially narrowed the differential in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include Alphabet's October earnings and any finalization of the labs' listing timelines, though resolution by December 31 remains distant enough that current capital-market pricing reflects the entrenched size advantage.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hour trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the last NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.tiejian1001.uk/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Anthropic and OpenAI’s combined valuation is equal to Google’s public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Wolumen
$7,778Data zakończenia
Jan 5, 2027Rynek otwarty
May 19, 2026, 4:27 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Alphabet's public market capitalization near $4.25 trillion as of mid-September 2026 substantially exceeds the combined private valuations of OpenAI (~$860 billion secondary marks) and Anthropic (~$885–965 billion post its May Series H), creating a wide gap that underpins the 80.5% market-implied probability for Google. Revenue scale and stability favor Alphabet, whose advertising and cloud businesses generate hundreds of billions annually with consistent profitability, while the AI labs' rapid ARR growth—OpenAI exceeding $40 billion annualized and Anthropic near $47 billion—still leaves their enterprise values far smaller despite massive funding rounds and IPO preparations. Recent investor discussions around potential $1.2 trillion+ rounds for OpenAI highlight upside optionality but have not materially narrowed the differential in the past month. Key near-term catalysts include Alphabet's October earnings and any finalization of the labs' listing timelines, though resolution by December 31 remains distant enough that current capital-market pricing reflects the entrenched size advantage.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania