Incumbent Glenn Ivey holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris’s 26.5-point margin there in 2024 and Ivey’s own 88.4% reelection that year. He secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with roughly 79% of the primary vote against several challengers, while Republican George McDermott advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, and Ivey maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s voting history and structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited, primarily a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or significant health development affecting the incumbent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMD-04 House Election Winner
MD-04 House Election Winner
$47,101 Wol.
$47,101 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
97%
George McDermott (R)
<1%
$47,101 Wol.
$47,101 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
$21,397 Wol.
97%
George McDermott (R)
$25,705 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Glenn Ivey holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris’s 26.5-point margin there in 2024 and Ivey’s own 88.4% reelection that year. He secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with roughly 79% of the primary vote against several challengers, while Republican George McDermott advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, and Ivey maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s voting history and structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited, primarily a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or significant health development affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$47,101Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Glenn Ivey holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris’s 26.5-point margin there in 2024 and Ivey’s own 88.4% reelection that year. He secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with roughly 79% of the primary vote against several challengers, while Republican George McDermott advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, and Ivey maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s voting history and structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited, primarily a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or significant health development affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$47,101Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Glenn Ivey holds a commanding position in Maryland’s 4th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in Kamala Harris’s 26.5-point margin there in 2024 and Ivey’s own 88.4% reelection that year. He secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 with roughly 79% of the primary vote against several challengers, while Republican George McDermott advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, and Ivey maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district’s voting history and structural advantages. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain limited, primarily a major unforeseen event such as a late scandal or significant health development affecting the incumbent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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