Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models highlight strong radiative cooling overnight under a dominant high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds, driving the 70% market-implied probability for a Madrid low of 11°C or below on September 11. Dry continental air masses and the city's elevated plateau location amplify heat loss after daytime highs near 30°C, consistent with recent observations showing progressive cooling from mid-September norms around 16°C. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing minimums potentially reaching 10–12°C, while noting limited upside risk from any last-minute cloud cover or wind shifts before final AEMET verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 11?
11°C or below 70%
21°C or higher 39%
12°C 27%
13°C 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 11, 2026
11°C or below
70%
12°C
27%
13°C
16%
14°C
16%
15°C
14%
16°C
14%
17°C
14%
18°C
5%
19°C
5%
20°C
5%
21°C or higher
39%
11°C or below 70%
21°C or higher 39%
12°C 27%
13°C 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 11, 2026
11°C or below
$51 Wol.
70%
12°C
$12 Wol.
27%
13°C
$12 Wol.
16%
14°C
$0 Wol.
16%
15°C
$0 Wol.
14%
16°C
$0 Wol.
14%
17°C
$0 Wol.
14%
18°C
$0 Wol.
5%
19°C
$0 Wol.
5%
20°C
$0 Wol.
5%
21°C or higher
$0 Wol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models highlight strong radiative cooling overnight under a dominant high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds, driving the 70% market-implied probability for a Madrid low of 11°C or below on September 11. Dry continental air masses and the city's elevated plateau location amplify heat loss after daytime highs near 30°C, consistent with recent observations showing progressive cooling from mid-September norms around 16°C. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing minimums potentially reaching 10–12°C, while noting limited upside risk from any last-minute cloud cover or wind shifts before final AEMET verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$75Data zakończenia
Sep 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models highlight strong radiative cooling overnight under a dominant high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds, driving the 70% market-implied probability for a Madrid low of 11°C or below on September 11. Dry continental air masses and the city's elevated plateau location amplify heat loss after daytime highs near 30°C, consistent with recent observations showing progressive cooling from mid-September norms around 16°C. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing minimums potentially reaching 10–12°C, while noting limited upside risk from any last-minute cloud cover or wind shifts before final AEMET verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$75Data zakończenia
Sep 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from European and global models highlight strong radiative cooling overnight under a dominant high-pressure ridge, clear skies, and light northeasterly winds, driving the 70% market-implied probability for a Madrid low of 11°C or below on September 11. Dry continental air masses and the city's elevated plateau location amplify heat loss after daytime highs near 30°C, consistent with recent observations showing progressive cooling from mid-September norms around 16°C. Traders are weighting the latest ECMWF and GFS runs showing minimums potentially reaching 10–12°C, while noting limited upside risk from any last-minute cloud cover or wind shifts before final AEMET verification.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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