Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader consensus in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the seat's entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in its R+26 partisan voting index and consistent solid or safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's northwest Louisiana base delivered Johnson an 85.8% primary victory in 2024 against a fellow Republican, and recent redistricting after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais further consolidated Republican strength. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million, dwarfing the under $300,000 totals for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich. The November 3, 2026, open primary and potential December 12 runoff leave limited room for upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLA-04 House Election Winner
LA-04 House Election Winner
$11,997 Wol.
$11,997 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$11,997 Wol.
$11,997 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$3,671 Wol.
95%
Democratic Party
$8,326 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader consensus in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the seat's entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in its R+26 partisan voting index and consistent solid or safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's northwest Louisiana base delivered Johnson an 85.8% primary victory in 2024 against a fellow Republican, and recent redistricting after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais further consolidated Republican strength. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million, dwarfing the under $300,000 totals for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich. The November 3, 2026, open primary and potential December 12 runoff leave limited room for upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Wolumen
$11,997Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader consensus in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the seat's entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in its R+26 partisan voting index and consistent solid or safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's northwest Louisiana base delivered Johnson an 85.8% primary victory in 2024 against a fellow Republican, and recent redistricting after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais further consolidated Republican strength. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million, dwarfing the under $300,000 totals for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich. The November 3, 2026, open primary and potential December 12 runoff leave limited room for upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$11,997Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the current Speaker of the House, anchors trader consensus in Louisiana's 4th congressional district due to the seat's entrenched Republican tilt, reflected in its R+26 partisan voting index and consistent solid or safe ratings from forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's northwest Louisiana base delivered Johnson an 85.8% primary victory in 2024 against a fellow Republican, and recent redistricting after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais further consolidated Republican strength. Johnson's fundraising exceeds $20 million, dwarfing the under $300,000 totals for Democratic challengers Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich. The November 3, 2026, open primary and potential December 12 runoff leave limited room for upset absent major unforeseen developments such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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