Market-implied odds heavily favor a 25-basis-point hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflation and resilient growth. September 2026 CPI printed at 3.7% year-over-year, up from 3.4% in August, while core readings remain elevated near 3.3-3.4% amid sticky shelter costs; the Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections showed a 4.1% median funds rate for year-end, consistent with one additional tightening. The October 28 decision held the target range at 3.75-4.00% by a 10-2 vote, with two dissents preferring an immediate quarter-point rise, and officials described activity as expanding at a strong pace with robust investment. Incoming November CPI and employment data ahead of the December projections meeting represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.