Persistent US-Iran hostilities, including the 2026 conflict, renewed sanctions enforcement, and stalled follow-up to the June memorandum of understanding, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The United States maintains no physical diplomatic presence, relying on Switzerland as protecting power amid Level 4 travel advisories and ongoing disputes over nuclear inspections, the Strait of Hormuz, frozen assets, and proxy conflicts. Recent Iranian conditions conveyed via Qatar for halting hostilities have not produced normalization steps. Late breakthroughs in bilateral talks or a comprehensive ceasefire could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers such as congressional involvement and security requirements make full embassy operations in 2026 highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$159,455 Vol.
$159,455 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$159,455 Vol.
$159,455 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran hostilities, including the 2026 conflict, renewed sanctions enforcement, and stalled follow-up to the June memorandum of understanding, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The United States maintains no physical diplomatic presence, relying on Switzerland as protecting power amid Level 4 travel advisories and ongoing disputes over nuclear inspections, the Strait of Hormuz, frozen assets, and proxy conflicts. Recent Iranian conditions conveyed via Qatar for halting hostilities have not produced normalization steps. Late breakthroughs in bilateral talks or a comprehensive ceasefire could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers such as congressional involvement and security requirements make full embassy operations in 2026 highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
音量
$159,455終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran hostilities, including the 2026 conflict, renewed sanctions enforcement, and stalled follow-up to the June memorandum of understanding, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The United States maintains no physical diplomatic presence, relying on Switzerland as protecting power amid Level 4 travel advisories and ongoing disputes over nuclear inspections, the Strait of Hormuz, frozen assets, and proxy conflicts. Recent Iranian conditions conveyed via Qatar for halting hostilities have not produced normalization steps. Late breakthroughs in bilateral talks or a comprehensive ceasefire could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers such as congressional involvement and security requirements make full embassy operations in 2026 highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$159,455終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran hostilities, including the 2026 conflict, renewed sanctions enforcement, and stalled follow-up to the June memorandum of understanding, underpin the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening the US embassy in Tehran this year. The United States maintains no physical diplomatic presence, relying on Switzerland as protecting power amid Level 4 travel advisories and ongoing disputes over nuclear inspections, the Strait of Hormuz, frozen assets, and proxy conflicts. Recent Iranian conditions conveyed via Qatar for halting hostilities have not produced normalization steps. Late breakthroughs in bilateral talks or a comprehensive ceasefire could theoretically shift timelines, though structural barriers such as congressional involvement and security requirements make full embassy operations in 2026 highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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