Ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran, including US-Israeli strikes and Iranian missile and drone responses through September 2026, has eliminated prospects for diplomatic normalization this year. Active hostilities, disrupted shipping routes, nuclear site damage, and mutual threats sustain deep adversarial positioning, with no official bilateral channels or normalization signals from either government. Trader consensus at 97.9% for “No” reflects these verified developments and the absence of any pathway to embassy reopening before year-end. Late shifts remain theoretically possible only through an abrupt comprehensive ceasefire followed by immediate regime-level agreements, though such steps lack precedent or current momentum within the remaining months.