**Recent statements from DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin have renewed attention to longstanding allegations that Rep. Ilhan Omar married her brother in 2009 as part of an immigration scheme, with officials describing an ongoing investigation into possible fraud in her or her family's entry to the United States.** Omar, a naturalized citizen since 2000 after arriving as a refugee in 1995, has repeatedly denied the claims, noting the marriage occurred years after her citizenship was granted. Deportation of a naturalized citizen requires a successful DOJ-led civil denaturalization suit in federal court proving illegal procurement or willful misrepresentation during the naturalization process—a high evidentiary bar with no public charges or proceedings filed to date. Traders view the timeline mismatch, procedural hurdles, and absence of active legal action as strong barriers to deportation occurring before the end of 2026, producing the current 93.5% implied probability on "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rep. Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.**Recent statements from DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin have renewed attention to longstanding allegations that Rep. Ilhan Omar married her brother in 2009 as part of an immigration scheme, with officials describing an ongoing investigation into possible fraud in her or her family's entry to the United States.** Omar, a naturalized citizen since 2000 after arriving as a refugee in 1995, has repeatedly denied the claims, noting the marriage occurred years after her citizenship was granted. Deportation of a naturalized citizen requires a successful DOJ-led civil denaturalization suit in federal court proving illegal procurement or willful misrepresentation during the naturalization process—a high evidentiary bar with no public charges or proceedings filed to date. Traders view the timeline mismatch, procedural hurdles, and absence of active legal action as strong barriers to deportation occurring before the end of 2026, producing the current 93.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rep. Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
マーケット開始日： Aug 25, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
音量
$596終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 25, 2026, 5:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rep. Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.**Recent statements from DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin have renewed attention to longstanding allegations that Rep. Ilhan Omar married her brother in 2009 as part of an immigration scheme, with officials describing an ongoing investigation into possible fraud in her or her family's entry to the United States.** Omar, a naturalized citizen since 2000 after arriving as a refugee in 1995, has repeatedly denied the claims, noting the marriage occurred years after her citizenship was granted. Deportation of a naturalized citizen requires a successful DOJ-led civil denaturalization suit in federal court proving illegal procurement or willful misrepresentation during the naturalization process—a high evidentiary bar with no public charges or proceedings filed to date. Traders view the timeline mismatch, procedural hurdles, and absence of active legal action as strong barriers to deportation occurring before the end of 2026, producing the current 93.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rep. Ilhan Omar is officially deported from the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
Deportation is defined as the formal removal of Omar from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.
A removal order that has not been implemented will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.
音量
$596終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 25, 2026, 5:41 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Recent statements from DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin have renewed attention to longstanding allegations that Rep. Ilhan Omar married her brother in 2009 as part of an immigration scheme, with officials describing an ongoing investigation into possible fraud in her or her family's entry to the United States.** Omar, a naturalized citizen since 2000 after arriving as a refugee in 1995, has repeatedly denied the claims, noting the marriage occurred years after her citizenship was granted. Deportation of a naturalized citizen requires a successful DOJ-led civil denaturalization suit in federal court proving illegal procurement or willful misrepresentation during the naturalization process—a high evidentiary bar with no public charges or proceedings filed to date. Traders view the timeline mismatch, procedural hurdles, and absence of active legal action as strong barriers to deportation occurring before the end of 2026, producing the current 93.5% implied probability on "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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