Recent patterns of short but recurring incidents, including a multi-hour credit delay on October 1 and elevated errors across Claude.ai, the API, Code, and Cowork on September 29, anchor trader expectations for several downtime days in October. Anthropic’s 90-day status data shows component uptime near 99.4-99.8 percent alongside dozens of resolved incidents, many lasting under two hours yet registering as full days affected. The tight split between 5-7 and 8-10 days reflects uncertainty over whether scaling pressures on large language model inference and billing systems will produce the lower or higher end of that historical range. No major regulatory or competitive shifts have altered the outlook, leaving resolution dependent on the frequency of similar transient disruptions through month-end.