**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo scores sit in the 1500–1506 range as of September 20, 2026, led by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Opus variants, Google Gemini 3.1 Pro models, and Meta’s Muse Spark.** Trader sentiment reflects the slow pace of leaderboard movement through accumulated human votes rather than sudden leaps, with no confirmed new frontier releases or major capability jumps in the final ten days of the month. Incremental updates to existing models or style-controlled variants have produced only modest Elo shifts recently, while competitive positioning among Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remains tight. Any resolution hinges on whether a late-September model drop or rapid vote surge can push a single entry past the specific threshold before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$388,921 Vol.
2026/09/30
1530
3%
1540
3%
1550
1%
$388,921 Vol.
1530
$22,756 Vol.
3%
1540
$11,124 Vol.
3%
1550
$12,020 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo scores sit in the 1500–1506 range as of September 20, 2026, led by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Opus variants, Google Gemini 3.1 Pro models, and Meta’s Muse Spark.**
Trader sentiment reflects the slow pace of leaderboard movement through accumulated human votes rather than sudden leaps, with no confirmed new frontier releases or major capability jumps in the final ten days of the month. Incremental updates to existing models or style-controlled variants have produced only modest Elo shifts recently, while competitive positioning among Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remains tight. Any resolution hinges on whether a late-September model drop or rapid vote surge can push a single entry past the specific threshold before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
音量
$388,921終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo scores sit in the 1500–1506 range as of September 20, 2026, led by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Opus variants, Google Gemini 3.1 Pro models, and Meta’s Muse Spark.**
Trader sentiment reflects the slow pace of leaderboard movement through accumulated human votes rather than sudden leaps, with no confirmed new frontier releases or major capability jumps in the final ten days of the month. Incremental updates to existing models or style-controlled variants have produced only modest Elo shifts recently, while competitive positioning among Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remains tight. Any resolution hinges on whether a late-September model drop or rapid vote surge can push a single entry past the specific threshold before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$388,921終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Current top Chatbot Arena Elo scores sit in the 1500–1506 range as of September 20, 2026, led by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and closely followed by Opus variants, Google Gemini 3.1 Pro models, and Meta’s Muse Spark.** Trader sentiment reflects the slow pace of leaderboard movement through accumulated human votes rather than sudden leaps, with no confirmed new frontier releases or major capability jumps in the final ten days of the month. Incremental updates to existing models or style-controlled variants have produced only modest Elo shifts recently, while competitive positioning among Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI remains tight. Any resolution hinges on whether a late-September model drop or rapid vote surge can push a single entry past the specific threshold before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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