Tim Cook’s September 2026 transition out of the Apple CEO role to John Ternus, who is steering hardware priorities and AI integration, has driven the strongest consensus in the market. Trader positioning reflects the completed handover and limited likelihood of reversal before year-end. Other listed CEOs show steadier outlooks: Sundar Pichai and Andy Jassy face routine competitive and AI pressures without recent board signals of change, while Brian Armstrong and Dan Clancy sit near even odds amid company-specific execution risks. Sam Altman’s lower probability aligns with OpenAI’s continued leadership stability despite broader sector turbulence. Upcoming earnings calls and any board announcements through December remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift remaining probabilities.