OpenAI's recent GPT-6 Astra release and executive comments framing the current period as the start of the "AGI era" have fueled discussion, yet traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to "No" because the company has stopped short of a formal public announcement that it has achieved AGI under its own definition of systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Astra demonstrates strong agentic capabilities in areas like software engineering, cybersecurity, and scientific tasks, with notable benchmark gains, but OpenAI continues emphasizing safety reviews, third-party evaluations, and internal milestones such as an automated research intern targeted for 2028 rather than declaring full AGI. With only months remaining before 2027 and ongoing industry coordination on alignment, the gap between hype around the latest large language model and an official resolution-triggering statement keeps consensus firmly against an imminent announcement.