John Carter, the twelve-term Republican incumbent, maintains a commanding lead in the Texas 31st congressional district race due to the district’s R+11 partisan lean, his decisive March 2026 primary victory with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, and a Trump endorsement. Carter’s substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.3 million raised versus under $90,000 for Democratic nominee Justin Early—further reinforces trader consensus around his strong position ahead of the November 3 general election. Early secured his primary but faces structural barriers in a district anchored by Austin exurbs and military communities. Carter’s age remains the primary variable that could introduce uncertainty, though no major recent developments have shifted the implied probability reflected in current pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$45,380 Vol.
$45,380 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョン・カーター（共和党）
93%
ジャスティン・アーリー（民主党）
8%
$45,380 Vol.
$45,380 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョン・カーター（共和党）
$24,919 Vol.
93%
ジャスティン・アーリー（民主党）
$20,462 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Carter, the twelve-term Republican incumbent, maintains a commanding lead in the Texas 31st congressional district race due to the district’s R+11 partisan lean, his decisive March 2026 primary victory with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, and a Trump endorsement. Carter’s substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.3 million raised versus under $90,000 for Democratic nominee Justin Early—further reinforces trader consensus around his strong position ahead of the November 3 general election. Early secured his primary but faces structural barriers in a district anchored by Austin exurbs and military communities. Carter’s age remains the primary variable that could introduce uncertainty, though no major recent developments have shifted the implied probability reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$45,380終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John Carter, the twelve-term Republican incumbent, maintains a commanding lead in the Texas 31st congressional district race due to the district’s R+11 partisan lean, his decisive March 2026 primary victory with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, and a Trump endorsement. Carter’s substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.3 million raised versus under $90,000 for Democratic nominee Justin Early—further reinforces trader consensus around his strong position ahead of the November 3 general election. Early secured his primary but faces structural barriers in a district anchored by Austin exurbs and military communities. Carter’s age remains the primary variable that could introduce uncertainty, though no major recent developments have shifted the implied probability reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$45,380終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...John Carter, the twelve-term Republican incumbent, maintains a commanding lead in the Texas 31st congressional district race due to the district’s R+11 partisan lean, his decisive March 2026 primary victory with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers, and a Trump endorsement. Carter’s substantial fundraising advantage—over $1.3 million raised versus under $90,000 for Democratic nominee Justin Early—further reinforces trader consensus around his strong position ahead of the November 3 general election. Early secured his primary but faces structural barriers in a district anchored by Austin exurbs and military communities. Carter’s age remains the primary variable that could introduce uncertainty, though no major recent developments have shifted the implied probability reflected in current pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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