**Traders assign a 90.5% probability to "No" for Turkey moving on a new constitution in 2026 because parliamentary arithmetic and competing priorities make legislative or referendum action unlikely before year-end, despite ongoing AKP drafting work.** The ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat parliament—short of the 360 needed to submit amendments to a referendum or the 400 required for direct passage. Recent internal AKP efforts, including a September 22 announcement that a party committee has largely completed draft work for presentation to President Erdoğan, remain at the preparatory stage without cross-party consensus. Broader support from pro-Kurdish DEM lawmakers or other groups has not materialized at the required threshold, even amid the August Framework Law advancing the PKK peace process. Instead, senior officials including the Justice Minister have publicly aligned on using Article 116 to call early elections in April 2028, allowing Erdoğan a third term without a full constitutional rewrite. This procedural route, combined with opposition fragmentation following the CHP split and the compressed timeline remaining in 2026, underpins the strong trader consensus against near-term advancement. Any shift would require rapid coalition-building or an unexpected parliamentary vote exceeding historical patterns for supermajorities on structural changes.