Recent polling averages project the PP and Vox together securing 190–210 seats in the 350-seat Congress, well above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority, in the vast majority of simulations. This stems from the PP holding a steady lead near 31% while Vox reaches around 19%, outpacing the PSOE and its allies. The right-wing bloc’s advantage has held through October surveys despite minor narrowing in some readings. A recent tactical Senate pact between the PP and Vox, covering multiple provinces to consolidate votes, further signals coordinated strategy ahead of the November 29 vote. These factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 82.5% implied probability for a PP+Vox majority.