Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket faces a compressed schedule that underpins the 91.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 debut. Multiple prior slips, including a January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing, shifted the target to Q4 pad delivery at Wallops rather than flight. Recent company statements emphasize that the launch window is narrowing while prioritizing successful qualification of the nine Archimedes engines, carbon-composite tanks, Hungry Hippo captive fairing, and full vehicle static fires over rushing integration. With extensive remaining steps—static-fire campaigns, wet dress rehearsals, and regulatory clearances—still ahead in late 2026, traders see little realistic path to liftoff before year-end despite ongoing hardware progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9% 確率
$11,568 Vol.
$11,568 Vol.
2026/12/31
9% 確率
$11,568 Vol.
$11,568 Vol.
2026/12/31
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket faces a compressed schedule that underpins the 91.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 debut. Multiple prior slips, including a January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing, shifted the target to Q4 pad delivery at Wallops rather than flight. Recent company statements emphasize that the launch window is narrowing while prioritizing successful qualification of the nine Archimedes engines, carbon-composite tanks, Hungry Hippo captive fairing, and full vehicle static fires over rushing integration. With extensive remaining steps—static-fire campaigns, wet dress rehearsals, and regulatory clearances—still ahead in late 2026, traders see little realistic path to liftoff before year-end despite ongoing hardware progress.
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
音量
$11,568終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket faces a compressed schedule that underpins the 91.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 debut. Multiple prior slips, including a January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing, shifted the target to Q4 pad delivery at Wallops rather than flight. Recent company statements emphasize that the launch window is narrowing while prioritizing successful qualification of the nine Archimedes engines, carbon-composite tanks, Hungry Hippo captive fairing, and full vehicle static fires over rushing integration. With extensive remaining steps—static-fire campaigns, wet dress rehearsals, and regulatory clearances—still ahead in late 2026, traders see little realistic path to liftoff before year-end despite ongoing hardware progress.
If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.
音量
$11,568終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 3:16 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Rocket Lab’s Neutron medium-lift rocket faces a compressed schedule that underpins the 91.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 debut. Multiple prior slips, including a January 2026 first-stage tank rupture during hydrostatic testing, shifted the target to Q4 pad delivery at Wallops rather than flight. Recent company statements emphasize that the launch window is narrowing while prioritizing successful qualification of the nine Archimedes engines, carbon-composite tanks, Hungry Hippo captive fairing, and full vehicle static fires over rushing integration. With extensive remaining steps—static-fire campaigns, wet dress rehearsals, and regulatory clearances—still ahead in late 2026, traders see little realistic path to liftoff before year-end despite ongoing hardware progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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