A May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn static fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s only operational pad, driving the 85% market-implied odds against any launch this year. CEO Dave Limp has outlined a faster return using an accelerated horizontal-vertical hybrid integration approach that skips full pad reconstruction, but the ongoing first-stage anomaly investigation, remaining major repairs, and need to validate new procedures create substantial timeline risk. With just months left in 2026 and no second pad ready, traders see limited room for the required hardware integration, testing, and certification steps before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
15% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
15% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.A May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn static fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s only operational pad, driving the 85% market-implied odds against any launch this year. CEO Dave Limp has outlined a faster return using an accelerated horizontal-vertical hybrid integration approach that skips full pad reconstruction, but the ongoing first-stage anomaly investigation, remaining major repairs, and need to validate new procedures create substantial timeline risk. With just months left in 2026 and no second pad ready, traders see limited room for the required hardware integration, testing, and certification steps before year-end.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
マーケット開始日： Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
音量
$1,453終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.A May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn static fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s only operational pad, driving the 85% market-implied odds against any launch this year. CEO Dave Limp has outlined a faster return using an accelerated horizontal-vertical hybrid integration approach that skips full pad reconstruction, but the ongoing first-stage anomaly investigation, remaining major repairs, and need to validate new procedures create substantial timeline risk. With just months left in 2026 and no second pad ready, traders see limited room for the required hardware integration, testing, and certification steps before year-end.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
音量
$1,453終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jun 1, 2026, 1:11 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...A May 28, 2026 explosion during a New Glenn static fire test at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed the vehicle and heavily damaged Blue Origin’s only operational pad, driving the 85% market-implied odds against any launch this year. CEO Dave Limp has outlined a faster return using an accelerated horizontal-vertical hybrid integration approach that skips full pad reconstruction, but the ongoing first-stage anomaly investigation, remaining major repairs, and need to validate new procedures create substantial timeline risk. With just months left in 2026 and no second pad ready, traders see limited room for the required hardware integration, testing, and certification steps before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問