Mary Gay Scanlon's commanding position in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race stems from the seat's entrenched Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon benefits from name recognition, substantial campaign resources, and an uncontested May 2026 primary. Her Republican opponent, Nicholas Manganaro, emerged from an uncontested primary but faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and the district's suburban Philadelphia composition favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift in trader consensus would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$37,067 Vol.
$37,067 Vol.
2026/11/02
メアリー・ゲイ・スカンロン（民主党）
98%
ニコラス・マンガナロ（共和党）
1%
$37,067 Vol.
$37,067 Vol.
2026/11/02
メアリー・ゲイ・スカンロン（民主党）
$12,557 Vol.
98%
ニコラス・マンガナロ（共和党）
$24,511 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mary Gay Scanlon's commanding position in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race stems from the seat's entrenched Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon benefits from name recognition, substantial campaign resources, and an uncontested May 2026 primary. Her Republican opponent, Nicholas Manganaro, emerged from an uncontested primary but faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and the district's suburban Philadelphia composition favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift in trader consensus would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$37,067終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mary Gay Scanlon's commanding position in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race stems from the seat's entrenched Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon benefits from name recognition, substantial campaign resources, and an uncontested May 2026 primary. Her Republican opponent, Nicholas Manganaro, emerged from an uncontested primary but faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and the district's suburban Philadelphia composition favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift in trader consensus would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$37,067終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Gay Scanlon's commanding position in the Pennsylvania 5th congressional district race stems from the seat's entrenched Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+15 and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. As the incumbent since 2018, Scanlon benefits from name recognition, substantial campaign resources, and an uncontested May 2026 primary. Her Republican opponent, Nicholas Manganaro, emerged from an uncontested primary but faces structural barriers including limited fundraising and the district's suburban Philadelphia composition favoring Democrats. All major forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. A realistic shift in trader consensus would require an unforeseen development such as a late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican surge capable of overcoming the district's baseline partisan lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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