Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. As the chosen successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Lasher drew endorsements from Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders while benefiting from the district’s deep Democratic registration advantage and history of wide margins in general elections. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney, faces significant fundraising and structural disadvantages in the Manhattan-based seat. Trader consensus around 97.5% for Lasher reflects these partisan fundamentals and the absence of competitive opposition or recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late shifts remain possible through unusually low Democratic turnout or national conditions favoring Republicans, though no such factors have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイカ・ラッシャー（民主党）
97%
キャロライン・シンクル（共和党）
<1%
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイカ・ラッシャー（民主党）
$17,262 Vol.
97%
キャロライン・シンクル（共和党）
$15,635 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. As the chosen successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Lasher drew endorsements from Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders while benefiting from the district’s deep Democratic registration advantage and history of wide margins in general elections. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney, faces significant fundraising and structural disadvantages in the Manhattan-based seat. Trader consensus around 97.5% for Lasher reflects these partisan fundamentals and the absence of competitive opposition or recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late shifts remain possible through unusually low Democratic turnout or national conditions favoring Republicans, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$32,897終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. As the chosen successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Lasher drew endorsements from Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders while benefiting from the district’s deep Democratic registration advantage and history of wide margins in general elections. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney, faces significant fundraising and structural disadvantages in the Manhattan-based seat. Trader consensus around 97.5% for Lasher reflects these partisan fundamentals and the absence of competitive opposition or recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late shifts remain possible through unusually low Democratic turnout or national conditions favoring Republicans, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,897終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, defeating a crowded field that included Assemblymember Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. As the chosen successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, Lasher drew endorsements from Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders while benefiting from the district’s deep Democratic registration advantage and history of wide margins in general elections. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney, faces significant fundraising and structural disadvantages in the Manhattan-based seat. Trader consensus around 97.5% for Lasher reflects these partisan fundamentals and the absence of competitive opposition or recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late shifts remain possible through unusually low Democratic turnout or national conditions favoring Republicans, though no such factors have emerged.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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