Incumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$19,141 Vol.
$19,141 Vol.
2026/11/02
クリス・スミス（共和党）
96%
レイチェル・ピース（民主党）
5%
$19,141 Vol.
$19,141 Vol.
2026/11/02
クリス・スミス（共和党）
$6,168 Vol.
96%
レイチェル・ピース（民主党）
$12,973 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$19,141終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,141終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith holds a commanding lead in the NJ-04 House race, reflecting the district’s strong Republican lean across Monmouth and Ocean counties and his decades-long tenure since 1981. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican based on Smith’s consistent double-digit margins, including 67 percent in 2024. Smith advanced unopposed through the June primary while Democrat Rachel Peace secured her nomination with limited resources and fundraising. With the general election on November 3, the current trader consensus aligns with the district’s partisan composition and incumbency advantage. A major national political shift, health-related development, or unforeseen scandal could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns indicate limited vulnerability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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