Jess Wilson leads market pricing for Victoria’s next premier at 65.5 percent as Liberal leader and preferred premier in recent polling, with the Coalition holding a two-party-preferred edge ahead of the November 28 state election. Labor’s July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, prompted by caucus pressure over construction-sector integrity concerns, has not produced a sustained poll recovery, leaving Carroll and other Labor figures such as Gabrielle Williams and Sonya Kilkenny at much lower implied probabilities. Wilson’s emphasis on bail reform, housing supply, cost-of-living measures, and justice policies has consolidated opposition support, while the absence of major new Labor initiatives or external shocks has kept trader consensus focused on continuity in the Coalition’s electoral position.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ジェス・ウィルソン 66%
ベン・キャロル 20.2%
ジャシンタ・アラン 5.1%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ 4.3%
$19,993 Vol.
$19,993 Vol.
ジェス・ウィルソン
66%
ベン・キャロル
20%
ジャシンタ・アラン
5%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ
4%
デイビッド・サウスウィック
4%
ソニヤ・キルケニー
6%
ウォーレン・ピッカリング
2%
エマ・キーリー
1%
ダニー・オブライエン
<1%
スティーブ・ディモプロス
<1%
ジェームズ・ニューベリー
<1%
エレン・サンデル
<1%
ブラッド・バッティン
<1%
サム・グロス
<1%
ジャクリン・サイムズ
<1%
ジェス・ウィルソン 66%
ベン・キャロル 20.2%
ジャシンタ・アラン 5.1%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ 4.3%
$19,993 Vol.
$19,993 Vol.
ジェス・ウィルソン
66%
ベン・キャロル
20%
ジャシンタ・アラン
5%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ
4%
デイビッド・サウスウィック
4%
ソニヤ・キルケニー
6%
ウォーレン・ピッカリング
2%
エマ・キーリー
1%
ダニー・オブライエン
<1%
スティーブ・ディモプロス
<1%
ジェームズ・ニューベリー
<1%
エレン・サンデル
<1%
ブラッド・バッティン
<1%
サム・グロス
<1%
ジャクリン・サイムズ
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jess Wilson leads market pricing for Victoria’s next premier at 65.5 percent as Liberal leader and preferred premier in recent polling, with the Coalition holding a two-party-preferred edge ahead of the November 28 state election. Labor’s July 2026 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, prompted by caucus pressure over construction-sector integrity concerns, has not produced a sustained poll recovery, leaving Carroll and other Labor figures such as Gabrielle Williams and Sonya Kilkenny at much lower implied probabilities. Wilson’s emphasis on bail reform, housing supply, cost-of-living measures, and justice policies has consolidated opposition support, while the absence of major new Labor initiatives or external shocks has kept trader consensus focused on continuity in the Coalition’s electoral position.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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