The open Hobart Lord Mayor race, following incumbent Anna Reynolds’s June 2026 decision not to seek re-election, has produced a crowded field of sitting councillors and independents ahead of the October 27 Tasmanian local government elections. Trader pricing reflects this fragmentation, with John Kelly at 38.5% after his early September entry and others such as Ryan Posselt, Louise Bloomfield, Bill Harvey, and Marti Zucco clustered lower, underscoring the absence of a clear frontrunner. Candidates share overlapping emphases on transport infrastructure, financial governance, and sustainable growth, while the single transferable vote system amplifies the role of preference flows among similar profiles. Limited public polling since mid-year and the short campaign window following September nominations have kept probabilities compressed, with further candidate statements, media scrutiny, or preference deals likely to produce clearer separation before postal voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ジョン・ケリー 39%
ライアン・ポセルト 19%
ルイーズ・ブルームフィールド 16%
ビル・ハーヴィー 10%
ジョン・ケリー
39%
ライアン・ポセルト
19%
ルイーズ・ブルームフィールド
16%
ビル・ハーヴィー
10%
マーティ・ズッコ
9%
マイク・ダッタ
2%
ハーヴィー・レノン
<1%
ジョン・ケリー 39%
ライアン・ポセルト 19%
ルイーズ・ブルームフィールド 16%
ビル・ハーヴィー 10%
ジョン・ケリー
39%
ライアン・ポセルト
19%
ルイーズ・ブルームフィールド
16%
ビル・ハーヴィー
10%
マーティ・ズッコ
9%
マイク・ダッタ
2%
ハーヴィー・レノン
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 3, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Lord Mayor of the City of Hobart as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
The open Hobart Lord Mayor race, following incumbent Anna Reynolds’s June 2026 decision not to seek re-election, has produced a crowded field of sitting councillors and independents ahead of the October 27 Tasmanian local government elections. Trader pricing reflects this fragmentation, with John Kelly at 38.5% after his early September entry and others such as Ryan Posselt, Louise Bloomfield, Bill Harvey, and Marti Zucco clustered lower, underscoring the absence of a clear frontrunner. Candidates share overlapping emphases on transport infrastructure, financial governance, and sustainable growth, while the single transferable vote system amplifies the role of preference flows among similar profiles. Limited public polling since mid-year and the short campaign window following September nominations have kept probabilities compressed, with further candidate statements, media scrutiny, or preference deals likely to produce clearer separation before postal voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問