Heavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月21日の東京の最低気温は？
9月21日の東京の最低気温は？
22°C 74%
21℃ 22%
20℃ 6%
19°C 3%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
17℃以下
1%
18℃
<1%
19°C
3%
20℃
6%
21℃
22%
22°C
74%
23℃
<1%
24℃
<1%
25℃
<1%
26℃
<1%
27℃以上
<1%
22°C 74%
21℃ 22%
20℃ 6%
19°C 3%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
17℃以下
$31 Vol.
1%
18℃
$442 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$486 Vol.
3%
20℃
$388 Vol.
6%
21℃
$659 Vol.
22%
22°C
$1,384 Vol.
74%
23℃
$1,190 Vol.
<1%
24℃
$31 Vol.
<1%
25℃
$31 Vol.
<1%
26℃
$31 Vol.
<1%
27℃以上
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Heavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$4,703終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Heavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$4,703終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETHeavy rainfall and associated northerly winds from an active weather system are anchoring trader consensus around a 22°C minimum in Tokyo on September 21, with models showing strong agreement on overnight lows near 22–23°C amid near-100% cloud cover and high humidity. Recent observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm persistent precipitation and stable boundary-layer conditions that limit diurnal cooling, consistent with ensemble guidance projecting the low within a narrow 21–23°C band. This setup favors the leading 22°C outcome at 75% implied probability while assigning only modest odds to 21°C, as any slight model shift in wind or rainfall timing could nudge the minimum lower. Updated forecasts from the next model runs will provide the key data point for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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